A GOLDen Opportunity For You?

Today’s Market Update

The big news today was about Sebi absolving the Adani Group of any wrongdoing. Adani’s stocks had been under pressure due to the earlier Hindenburg conspiracy and several allegations. But now they stand vindicated and clear of all charges.

However, this positive development in Adani was not enough to stop profit booking in other sectors. I have been saying for many days, and even showed in a separate video, that after Fed rate cuts, markets usually don’t take off.

There was also another piece of good news today – US-India trade talks may get resolved by October or November. That was significant, but still, the markets sold off. This shows how markets can surprise you. Many people might have entered today expecting markets to rise on positive headlines, but much of it had already been discounted.

• Nifty closed down by 0.38%. It may feel like a fall, but nothing is really lost. We are just down from yesterday’s high, and if we look at the movement of the past 10 to 14 days, the market has already done very well.

• Nifty Junior, however, bucked the trend and was up by 0.58%. This was also the MSCI readjustment day, so Nifty might have been under some pressure because of that.

• Midcaps were flat at 0.01% and small caps too at 0.14%. Banks were down by 0.48%.

• Gold stayed steady, up only 0.28% in the last two sessions, but importantly, gold is holding near 11,000 per gram. With the current premiums, there seem to be tailwinds for gold going forward.

Other Market Triggers

• On the Nifty heatmap, apart from Adani Enterprises which was up 5%, not many stocks moved up. SBI, Shriram Finance, and Bharti Airtel gained around 1% each.

• But HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, HCLTech, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, Bajaj Auto, Reliance, Mahindra, and Power Grid all moved down.

• In Nifty Next 50, Swiggy, Hyundai, Torrent Pharma, and the Adani group stocks did well, while Indigo, Zydus Life, DLF, Bajaj Holdings, and ICICI declined.

• Adani Power stood out, jumping 12.36% after the clean chit, which was a big surprise even though the stock had been gradually gaining earlier.

What to watch next ?

• Naturally, several Adani stocks started moving up today and it looks like they may continue without any hindrance from here.

• There is a common belief that when interest rates are cut, equity markets must go up, but history shows otherwise. In fact, in the last 20 years, it has never happened that way. If it happens this time, it will be an exception. The markets have sold off after the Fed news, and it took a day or so for them to absorb it.

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Top Trending Strategies

What To Read This Week ?

A Golden Opportunity? Analyzing Gold's Price Movements

An interesting analysis from an analyst named Digger Vern on X highlights a compelling trend in gold's price action over the past two years. The study reveals a pattern where every consolidation period in gold (in dollar terms per ounce) has been followed by a significant upward move. These rallies have consistently delivered gains ranging from 20% to 34% from the bottom of the consolidation.

Let's break down the recent history:

• December 2023 - February 2024: After a period of plateauing, gold experienced a substantial 20% rally.

• March - June 2024: Following another consolidation phase, gold surged again, gaining 21.1%.

• November 2023 - Early January 2024: A correction and consolidation led to an impressive 33% gain.

• April - August 2025: Gold entered a new period of consolidation, and we are now seeing a breakout from this range.

The Current Breakout and Future Projections

As of the recording of this analysis, gold is trading around $3,630 per ounce, having recently touched $3,670. The chart presented in the analysis shows a breakout above the previous consolidation high of $3,586. If history were to repeat itself and gold follows the 20-34% upward trajectory seen in the last four rallies, the projections are quite significant.

• A 20% move from the current levels would push gold towards $4,000.

• A 34% move would see gold reach approximately $4,450.

This suggests a potential rally of another $400 to $800 from the current price.

Timeline for the Potential Rally

The previous rallies have taken varying lengths of time to play out, ranging from two to four months. Given that the current rally started in mid-August, it's plausible that this upward leg could extend until the end of the year. If the thesis holds, we could see gold trading anywhere between $4,000 and $4,450 by the end of 2025.

Key Takeaways:

1. Look Beyond the Immediate Gain: While gold is currently showing strength, this analysis suggests that the current move may be just the beginning of a much larger rally.

2. The Importance of Consolidation: Consolidation periods, often seen as stagnant, can be powerful springboards for the next leg of a rally. They are essential for a healthy market trend.

3. Potential Price Targets: Based on the historical pattern, a realistic projection for gold by the end of the year could be between $4,000 and $4,450, far exceeding its current price.

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