Do You Know The Biggest Indicator Of War ?

Market Update - Wednesday, 1 Apr

It is a good start to the new financial year, and there has been some talk of de-escalation recently. News reports indicate that President Trump and Marco Rubio are calling off the war in a few weeks, though whether one should believe their word or not remains to be seen as the attacks are still continuing.

The Nifty chart did not break out as such yet, but it was up 1.5%. We are still in a short, mid, and long-term negative trend, but nevertheless, it was a good jump today. It did give up some of the gains from the morning, as the Nifty hit a high of 22941 but closed at 22679.

• Nifty Junior was more resilient, finishing plus 2.59%. Mid-caps were up 2.2% and small-caps were up 3.22%.

• Small-caps are showing much more relative strength than other parts of the market, which is certainly a positive sign that the broader market is behaving in a relatively stronger way than the large-caps.

• Nifty Bank was up 2.33%, showing a nice jump after the smash down on the previous session.

• Gold is up 1%. Gold seems to be moving up, suggesting the worst possibly could be behind us for now, and a potential rise to the previous highs is not ruled out.

• Silver is also trying to move up, although it was down 0.97% for the day.

Other Market Triggers

• The entire heat map is largely green, though you had some spots of red including NTPC, Sun Pharma, HDFC Life, and a few other stocks like Dr. Reddy's. Pharma, which had been running up, took a back seat today because risk stocks were running up.

• Adani Ports was up 5%, Reliance up 2%, State Bank 4%, HDFC Bank 1.5%, and Mahindra 2.5%.

• Many stocks were running up, and the Nifty Next 50 heat map was also doing very well.

• You can see very big gains across the board with pharma stocks taking a back seat. HAL and DMart were some of the big movers from the Nifty Next 50 space.

• In the mover of the day segment, Garden Reach Shipbuilders Engineering Limited ran up almost 20% with strong results, and that lifted up all shipbuilding stocks.

• Ola also did very well at 13.55% with some new news about its sales crossing the one million dollar mark, but it has been beaten down so badly that these moves are still really meaningless.

U.S. Market Updates

• In the US markets, there were some good gains in the previous session of almost 2.5% to 3%. Intel Corporation jumped up 7%, while Meta, Palantir, Amazon, and Caterpillar all moved up 6% to 7%.

• The entire world is basically watching the US markets as the lead market and following them for now to take cues about whether the war is escalating or de-escalating. Nvidia was up sharply by 5.5% and Google was up 5%. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, and Intel all did extremely well in the previous session on the NASDAQ 100.

What to watch next ?

• With crude oil coming off, Asian markets have gone up and gold is going up.

• There is certainly an air of optimism at the start of the new year, which is extremely good.

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What To Read This Week ?

🌐 The Great Unwinding: China’s Exit from US Debt

The geopolitical chessboard is seeing its most significant move in decades. For over 80 years, the world followed a simple script: countries sold goods to the US, received Dollars, and reinvested those Dollars back into US Treasury bonds. But the script has been flipped. China is leading a quiet but massive "de-dollarization" campaign that could redefine global power.

📉 The $700 Billion Vanishing Act

Since the peak years of 2012–2014, the Chinese government has been systematically slashing its holdings of US Treasuries. Once hovering at a massive $1.4 trillion, their holdings have plummeted to approximately $700 billion. In the last four years alone, they’ve offloaded nearly $400–$500 billion.

What makes this move masterful is the execution; China is offloading this debt slowly and steadily, avoiding a global market crash while effectively reducing its exposure to US financial reach.

🏗️ Building a Golden Fortress

China isn’t just "selling"; they are "swapping." As they exit the US debt market, they are entering the Gold market with aggressive force. Official gold holdings have surged from $100 billion to nearly $400 billion.

Beyond the official numbers, analysts suspect a massive amount of unofficial gold accumulation is happening behind the scenes. By backing the Yuan with physical gold reserves, China is attempting to create a "hard" alternative to the US Dollar, signaling a return to commodity-backed currency strength.

⚠️ The Broken Cycle: Who Funds the US?

For 85 years, the US has relied on a reliable cycle:

1. The US issues debt.

2. Foreign nations buy that debt.

3. Those nations use the remaining dollars to trade.

With Russia completely out and China halfway out, a critical question arises: Who will buy the American debt? If major trade partners stop funding the US deficit, the US may be forced to print more money to buy its own debt (monetization) or rely solely on NATO allies, both of which put immense pressure on the Dollar’s hegemony.

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