Markets Overview

The past week in the Nifty index showed positive signs, starting around 22,100 and closing at 22,450, marking a gain of approximately 350 points. There were no significant downward movements, although Friday saw some profit-taking activities. This week’s performance followed a period of volatility in the preceding weeks. The weekly chart displayed a slight upward trend, indicating some stability in the market for 2024. However, it remains uncertain if this marks the beginning of a sustained upward trend. The market may experience a significant move before the upcoming election results in the next five weeks.

For those new to the market, I advise not to be concerned about current market highs, even if there’s speculation about a potential peak post-election. I suggest that even in the scenario of a market downturn, such as a 20% decline over a year, it presents an opportunity to start investing gradually as the market establishes a base and eventually rebounds. I’d also like to stress on the importance of starting investing if you haven’t started yet. Even those who invested at market peaks during crises like the 2008 Global Financial Crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 would have seen substantial gains over time. I’d recommend a runway of four to six years or more, as market returns are designed to occur over full cycles. Even entering at the end of one cycle presents an opportunity to build wealth over the next cycle.

Benchmark Indices & WeekendInvesting Strategies Overview

This week saw significant gains across various market segments. Smallcap 250 index led the pack with a robust 4.3% surge, followed closely by mid-small 400 index at 3.9%. The Nifty Next 50 index, regarded favorably by many investors, performed well with a 3.6% increase. Meanwhile, broader indices like the CNX 500 and CNX 200 posted gains of around 2%, while the Nifty itself gained 1.2%.

Notably, several WeekendInvesting strategies showed impressive performance this week. Mi 20 soared by 9.9%, marking a phenomenal start to the financial year 2025 after a remarkable FY 2024. Similarly, Mi 35 surged by 8.7% this week, outperforming benchmarks comfortably posting a remarkable 13.2% gain in FY 25. Other strategies like HNI Wealth Builder and Mi EverGreen also posted solid gains, adding to the list of top perming strategies. However, some strategies, such as Mi 25 and NG 5050, lagged behind this week, showcasing mixed performance. Despite minor setbacks, the overall market sentiment remained bullish, with the free NG 5050 portfolio too maintaining a decent 4.5% gain in FY 25 thus far.

Sectoral Overview

We witnessed significant gains in various sectors, with PSU banks leading the charge with a robust 6.4% surge. Real estate and public sector enterprise stocks followed closely behind, with gains of 4.6% and 4.3% in the current weel, respectively. However, the standout performer was the metals sector, which surged by 3.5% this week, marking an impressive 11.7% gain so far in the new financial year. The pharmaceutical sector also made a strong comeback, erasing all losses for the year with a 3.2% gain (current week). Additionally, commodities performed well, posting a 2.5% gain this week and reaching a 5% increase for the financial year. Conversely, IT stocks, while showing some improvement with a 0.9% gain, remain 3.5% down for the current financial year.

Gold prices have experienced a recent decline, while public sector enterprise stocks, metals, and PSU banks have shown notable movement in the last couple of weeks. Among these sectors, metals have demonstrated the strongest performance consistently across various periods, indicating their significant influence in driving market momentum. Therefore, for discretionary investors seeking trading opportunities, focusing on these sectors—metals, public sector enterprises (PSEs), PSU banks, and real estate—could be particularly beneficial.

Rebalance Update for the week !

Spotlight - Mi NNF 10

The "casino math" concept in Mi NNF 10 is intriguing. Since its launch in November 2020, the strategy has executed approximately 100 transactions. Out of these, 56 resulted in gains, while 44 ended in losses, indicating a win rate of 56% and a loss rate of 44%.

Interestingly, the average gain per winning transaction stands at 39.5%, whereas the average loss per losing transaction is 9%. This dynamic mirrors the workings of a slot machine in a casino, where the wins are more substantial than the losses. By allowing winning positions to run while cutting short losing ones, the strategy emulates the strategy of maximizing gains and minimizing losses.

This approach resembles the dynamics of a horse race, where underperforming horses are replaced with new contenders, and the leading ones are allowed to maintain their momentum. Overall, this strategy aims to capitalize on outliers that significantly impact its performance, highlighting the essence of momentum investing.

The WeekendInvesting App

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