GST Boosts meet Geopolitical Risks ?

Markets Overview

The markets ended the week on a steady note, but the real drama unfolded on the morning of the 20th with a press release from the Trump administration. The announcement introduced a $100,000 per year fee on H1B visas—visas that Indian IT companies rely on heavily for onshore U.S. work. The move has created shockwaves across the industry, sparking debates about its immediate and long-term implications.

One camp believes this is a seismic development that could disrupt the Indian IT and IT-enabled services sector. They argue that the additional costs could dampen demand and force companies to rethink their onshore strategy. The other camp, however, takes a more optimistic stance. Their view is that Indian IT firms are too entrenched in the U.S. system for clients to simply walk away. Instead, more offshoring could take place, with jobs, data centers, and back-office functions shifting to India. This could create new domestic opportunities and even strengthen India’s IT base in the long run.

Personally, I lean toward the second camp. The U.S. is unlikely to benefit meaningfully from this in the short term. If companies cut back on talent mobility, the real pain will be felt by U.S. corporations themselves, who will struggle to maintain efficiency and competitiveness. That pressure could quickly turn into lobbying against such fees. This move may even turn out to be a negotiation tactic—short-lived, possibly lasting only a couple of months. Still, it has already strained the India–U.S. dynamic and could encourage Indian IT firms to diversify further into European and other global markets, much like they did during the dot-com era.

Latest Daily Byte

The big news today was about Sebi absolving the Adani Group of any wrongdoing. Adani’s stocks had been under pressure due to the earlier Hindenburg conspiracy and several allegations. But now they stand vindicated and clear of all charges. It has taken nearly three and a half years for them to come out of this shadow. Naturally, several Adani stocks started moving up today and it looks like they may continue without any hindrance from here.

However, this positive development in Adani was not enough to stop profit booking in other sectors. I have been saying for many days, and even showed in a separate video, that after Fed rate cuts, markets usually don’t take off. There is a common belief that when interest rates are cut, equity markets must go up, but history shows otherwise. In fact, in the last 20 years, it has never happened that way. If it happens this time, it will be an exception. The markets have sold off after the Fed news, and it took a day or so for them to absorb it.

Rebalance Update for the week