Have Markets Finally Taken A U-Turn?

Market Update - Wednesday, 25 Mar

Wednesday, March 25, 2026, marks a positive day as the financial year draws to a close and the first signs of market recovery, or "green shoots," begin to appear. While the current moratorium on the war is expected to last four or five days, there are indications it could extend further, with discussions involving a possible one-month ceasefire.

The market is currently seeing a confirmatory note from all sides. The dollar index is falling, gold is up, and yields are down. However, the Indian rupee remains at its weakest point, closing near 94. While this presents an issue, there is a sense that the government is aligned with a potential move toward the 95 to 100 range.

• Regarding the current direction of the market, the Nifty has stayed above a two-day high for the second time since the war began, which is a positive sign for the short term.

• The Nifty rose 1.72%, though mid and long-term trends remain negative.

• Nifty Junior also moved above its two-day high with a 2% gain, while mid-caps showed a more solid increase of 2.34%.

• Small caps rose 2.49% as short-term trends turned positive, and the Bank Nifty followed suit with a 2% increase.

• Commodities are also moving, with gold up 1.85% at 14591 and silver up 2%.

• We are currently seeing a liquidity trade where everything falls when liquidity is tight and gains when it eases.

Other Market Triggers

• Practically everything on the screen was green today, including the Nifty Next 50.

• In the movers of the day, Birla Corp rose 9% on expansion news and a recovery in the cement sector, while SPARC jumped 17% as it recovered from an oversold position.

• Sectoral trends were almost universally positive.

• While Public Sector Enterprises and Nifty IT did not participate as much, there were gains of 1% to 2.5% across oil and gas, defense, energy, infrastructure, private banks, FMCG, pharma, consumption, auto, financial services, capital markets, metals, PSU banks, and real estate.

• It has been a very healthy day for the market. Looking at the weekly performance, most sectors remain negative except for Pharma and Nifty IT.

• On a monthly basis, the picture is still quite negative, with drops between 13% and 4.5%.

• While one day of gains doesn't change the whole picture, it serves as a good relief rally with prospects for a build-up.

U.S. Market Updates

• In the US markets during the previous session, Salesforce, ServiceNow, Intuit, Oracle, and Alphabet lost ground.

• The NASDAQ 100 was down 0.8% and the S&P 500 was down 0.4%. Some of these, like Google which fell 3.8% and Microsoft which fell 2.68%, could be part of the Weekend Investing US stock strategy.

• Because the news regarding the pause in the war came after the US market closed, it is likely those markets will spring into the green today.

What to watch next ?

• A common observation in the market today is that screens are green, leaving those who exited on Monday or Tuesday wondering when to jump back in.

• Many investors struggle with the "fear of missing out" or FOMO once they realize they may have missed the first 10% or 20% of a recovery.

• To combat this, it is essential to be methodical about decision-making. Having extreme clarity on what triggers an investment or an exit is vital. Practicing a rule-based, structured system, such as the one used at Weekend Investing, can help eliminate these worries and provide a clear path forward.

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