How to Tell if the Market is Overvalued

The Warning Signs of a Market Downturn

Author

Alok Jain
July 04, 2025


4 July 2025 · Friday

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Good evening, WeekendInvestor

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Today’s Daily Byte

It’s been a dull week, but markets held steady. Attention now shifts to a possible India–US mini tariff deal and SEBI’s interim order against Jane Street, which may impact algorithmic trading. Upcoming cues include US tariff developments and the start of quarterly earnings next week.

Reading Time : 4 Minutes

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Mi 20

This 20 stock portfolio is made up of the strongest mid and Smallcap stocks from the Mid-Small Cap 400 Index. It is rebalanced weekly.

How to Catch Trends in PSU Stocks: A Look at 20 Years of the CPSE Index

The Nifty CPSE Index has delivered a decent CAGR of 11% since its launch in 2004, but the journey hasn’t been a smooth upward ride. Instead, it has moved through distinct phases—rapid growth, long stagnation, and a fresh breakout. Analyzing these shifts offers deeper insight into how sectoral indices behave over time—and why timing matters just as much as the long-term average.

Reading Time : 3 Minutes

Market Cap to GDP: Are We Entering the Overvalued Zone?

Market cycles often feel unpredictable, but one simple metric—Market Cap to GDP—offers surprising clarity. Recently shared by Zafar Sheikh, this ratio shows how the stock market’s total value compares to the size of the economy. While not a perfect predictor, it has consistently highlighted moments of both caution and opportunity over the past two decades.

Reading Time : 2 Minutes

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The $5,000 Gold Forecast: What Past Bull Runs Reveal
Gold correlation with other assets

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