Is $8,000 Gold the Ultimate Destiny?

Market Update - Thursday, 29 Jan

There is now only one day remaining before the budget, and the market appears to be coiling in anticipation of some good news. A significant milestone has been reached as the market has crossed the two-day high on the Nifty. This serves as the first sign of thawing in the bear phase that has recently persisted.

While many are discussing gold at 5,500 or 5,600 as being too high, history provides necessary context. Since the 1970 bottom, there have been two major rallies. The first ran from 1970 to 1980, lasting ten years, during which gold prices in dollar terms increased 24 times.

The current context for gold may be even more significant than previous episodes, as central banks worldwide and stablecoin companies like Tether are vying for it. Even if the market only replicates the 8x move seen between 2000 and 2011, gold could close at approximately 88400 by next year. Understanding this long-term history is vital.

• Nifty showed a minor gain of 0.3%, moving above the two-day high. Consequently, both short-term and long-term trends are now positive.

• The Nifty Junior also rose by 0.3%, showing a very nice recovery with positive short and long-term trends.

• Mid-caps remained relatively flat at 0.11%, while small-caps stayed nearly unchanged at -0.06%.

• The Nifty Bank rose 0.6%, placing it very near all-time highs; any positive budget announcements could push it to a new peak. Short, mid, and long-term trends for the Nifty Bank remain very high.

• Gold is at 17264, up another 1.7%. Although it has come off its highs, trends remain very positive across the board.

• Silver is up 0.74%, though it has slowed down over the last three days compared to gold and has not yet surpassed its previous peak.

Other Market Triggers

• Specific stock movements included gains for ONGC, Coal India, L&T, Adani Ports, NTPC, and Axis Bank. Conversely, Asian Paints fell for a second day, joined by Maruti, TCS, Mahindra and Mahindra, and SBI Life.

• Within the Nifty Next 50, Canara Bank dropped 4.7%, likely due to profit-booking ahead of the budget.

• Other declines included Solar Industries, Naukri, DMart, Divi's Lab, Shree Cement, and Bank of Baroda.

• On the positive side, Adani stocks, Tata Power, Jindal Steel, Siemens, Motherson, DLF, and ABB—which saw a massive 8.5% jump—all performed well.

• The mover of the day was Hindustan Copper, which experienced a sharp 20% rally fueled by a rise in precious and industrial metals. Just two days ago, Hindustan Copper was at 500 to 550 rupees; it is now at 760. As a disclosure, Hindustan Copper is held in many of the company's strategies, though this is not a recommendation.

U.S. Market Updates

• In the US metal space, stocks like National Aluminium, Tata Steel, Vedanta, and NMDC are running hard. In the previous US session, the Russell index was smashed down 0.5%, while the NASDAQ continued to gain ground.

• Intel Corporation rose 11%, Texas Instruments rose 10%, and AT&T, UnitedHealth, and CVS were up between 3% and 4.5%. Some of these are part of the Weekend Investing US stock strategy, though these are not recommendations.

• The NASDAQ heat map highlighted Intel at 11%, MU at 6%, and Nvidia at 1.5%, while Palantir, associated with Trump followers, was down 5.04%.

What to watch next ?

• The US Dollar is currently falling against a basket of major currencies including the Euro, Yen, Pound, and Swiss Franc. Simultaneously, the Indian Rupee is falling against the US Dollar.

• This suggests a technical breakdown of the dollar, which may drop from 96 to around the 70 level in the coming years.

• Such a move would likely send significant money toward emerging markets and precious metals, which gold may already be pricing in.

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What To Read This Week ?

📈 The Golden Ratio: Is $8,000 Gold the Ultimate Destiny?

By analyzing the historical footprint of Gold (USD), we can see a pattern emerging that points toward a massive price target by late 2027. Let’s break down the geometry of this move.

🏛️ The First Pillar: The 2001–2011 Bull Run

To understand where we are going, we have to look at where we started. Between 2001 and 2011, Gold underwent its first major modern symmetrical move:

• Growth: +660%

• Duration: 624 weeks

• Outcome: This established the "baseline" for how Gold breathes during a long-term expansion.

🚩 The Rest Period: The Flag Pattern

No asset climbs forever without catching its breath. Following the 2011 peak, Gold entered a 228-week consolidation phase, forming a classic "Flag" pattern. This period ended with a firm bottom in 2016, setting the stage for the current rally we are witnessing today.

📏 The Symmetry Thesis: Target $8,000

If markets move in symmetrical blocks, we can project the 2001–2011 move onto our current cycle starting from the 2016 bottom.

🚀 The Final Sprint

As of late January 2024, Gold has already climbed significantly, showing a 335% increase over 526 weeks. With the price recently closing near $4,990 (indicative of the trend strength), we only have about 60% left to gain to hit that $8,000 milestone.

In the world of macro-cycles, a 60% move over the next two years is not just possible—it is statistically probable if the symmetry holds.

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