Is Momentum Back?

Is this the U-Turn we needed?

Market Update - Monday, 16 Feb

It was a nice start to the week. The markets opened on a weak and nervous note, clearly reflecting some hesitation after the slippage we saw towards the end of last week. If you recall, the first half of last week looked reasonably constructive, but Thursday and Friday brought in some pressure and mild profit booking.

However, today the market steadily built confidence through the session. The intraday recovery showed resilience and a willingness from participants to step back in. Momentum, which had briefly cooled off, seems to be returning. Overall, the structure of the market looks far more composed now, and sentiment appears to be stabilizing again.

  • Nifty staged a strong comeback, closing up 0.83% and forming a bullish engulfing candle — a technically encouraging sign. However, it still remains below the 200-day moving average and hasn’t filled the earlier gap, so the bigger trend still needs respect.

  • In the broader market, Nifty Next 50 also showed bullish engulfing traits, with mid and long-term trends holding positive

  • Microcaps slipped 0.74% and Mid/Smallcaps stayed largely flat near support/trend lines — indicating participation is still selective.

  • Bank Nifty led the show, up 1.27%, engulfing nearly five sessions in one move and closing at an all-time high — an important leadership signal for overall market confidence.

Other Market Triggers

  • Breadth: Advance-decline was close to flat at 277:223, suggesting reasonably balanced participation despite selectiveness in leadership.

  • Heatmap / Key movers: The heatmap was broadly green. Metals showed strong traction. Names like ITC, HDFC Bank, SBI, Axis Bank, Kotak Bank moved higher. IT saw pressure but recovered intraday, especially Infosys and TCS. Autos were slightly subdued.

  • Nifty Next 50 pockets: Real estate looked strong. PSU-linked names like Power Finance and IRFC also moved well — buying looked broad-based rather than narrowly concentrated.

  • Sector view: CPSE +2.2%, Energy +1.9%, Real Estate +1.6%. Capital market stocks faced pressure due to regulatory changes around broker funding / margin facilities. PSU momentum stayed strong with names like Power Grid, Coal India, NHPC, Oil India, NBCC holding near highs.

  • Commodities: Gold -0.6%, Silver -0.27% — largely flat moves. China being shut for holidays may have affected global volumes.

U.S. Market Updates

  • US markets were positive in the prior session with gains in names like ServiceNow, Nike, UnitedHealth, PayPal, Walt Disney. Russell 2000 was up ~1.2%, while S&P and Dow were relatively flat.

  • There were still mixed signals within mega-caps — while big tech like Nvidia, Apple, Google, Meta saw softness, some “smaller large-caps” like Cisco and Micron gained, pointing to rotation rather than uniform strength.

What to watch next ?

  • The key message remains: stay aligned with the long-term structure rather than reacting to daily noise.

  • For Nifty, watch follow-through above resistance zones and whether it can regain strength relative to the 200-DMA; otherwise the move risks remaining a bounce within a choppy trend.

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What To Read This Week ?

Being afraid of investing is not the solution.

Many investors believe that success in the stock market depends on perfect timing — buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest. While that sounds ideal, real data tells a different story.

Perfect timing (buying at yearly lows and selling at highs): ~$150,000

Invest immediately and stay invested: ~$135,000

SIP approach: ~$134,000

Worst timing (investing at market tops): ~$121,000

No investing (bank savings): ~$44,000

Yes, perfect timing gives the best result. But notice something important — even the worst timing still created substantial wealth. The biggest loss came from not investing at all.

The difference between perfect and poor timing was far smaller than most people expect.

Why Holding Period Matters More ?

The longer your holding period, the higher your probability of making money.

Short-term investing carries uncertainty. Long-term investing dramatically improves outcomes.

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