Markets in Flux. Geopolitical Impact ?

Markets Overview

It was a week marked by the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, yet the markets held their ground and remained mostly in a sideways zone. Despite the growing geopolitical tensions and the looming threat of high oil prices, the markets closed the week in a relatively stable position.

Some sectors did take a hit, but overall, the broader indices showed resilience. A key concern remains the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact up to 20% of global oil supplies, triggering a sharp spike in oil prices. That remains the primary fear factor in the current scenario.

Looking at the daily chart, the week began on a strong note with a sharp rise on Monday following a dip the previous Friday. However, Tuesday through Thursday saw a pullback before Friday offered a recovery bounce. This resulted in an overall weekly gain of 1.59%.

On the weekly chart, the index has remained stagnant for nearly six weeks, but notably, this week closed at the highest level within that range. Technically, the setup doesn’t look too bad and suggests potential strength ahead.

Latest Daily Byte

End of a choppy week, and once again, the market sprang a surprise today.

Last evening, a narrative emerged from the White House stating that President Trump would decide in two weeks whether or not to attack Iran. This has been interpreted as at least a temporary reprieve—perhaps two or three weeks—leading to hopes that the possibility of war may be postponed for now. Oil prices, which had touched nearly $78 yesterday, also fell slightly, providing some relief. It seems likely that some FII buying took place today. Overall, it turned out to be a pleasantly green day for the markets.

Rebalance Update for the week