Monday's Move depends On..

Markets Overview

There is finally an interval in the ongoing war, with ceasefire negotiations scheduled to begin on Saturday. The market has rallied significantly over the last week in anticipation of a positive resolution. While a failure in these negotiations could lead to a minor slump, there is a strong gut feeling that the market bottom has already been established. However, it is important to note that despite this recent bounce, long-term trends currently remain down.

This week saw the Nifty rise by 5.89%, marking one of its strongest weekly performances in five years. A significant "gap up" was created following the ceasefire announcement, and the market remained firm without weakening in the following days. From an Indian perspective, the primary concern is the flow of oil. While there is talk of a $1 per barrel oil toll tax, the current price levels near $9,500 are manageable as long as the supply remains uninterrupted.

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After four consecutive down months, the market was due for a bounce, and it is a notable coincidence that ceasefire negotiation attempts in the ongoing war have aligned with this timing. The first crucial meeting for these negotiations is set for Saturday.

Regarding the rumors about the Iranian delegation not reaching Islamabad, it is difficult to verify their accuracy, but the market notably did not pay heed to them, which is a positive sign. The Nifty closed up 1.16%, indicating that the previous day's loss was merely a profit-booking event.

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