More Pain Ahead After This Global Market Crash ?

Market Update - Monday, 23 Mar

Today, March 23rd, was a truly bloody day in the markets, characterized as "Monday Mania" or the "Monday Panic." There are hardly words to describe the situation other than a complete meltdown of all sorts. This devastation was not limited to equities but spanned across all asset classes. Bonds are seeing significant selling in other markets, while in India, yields are rising and gold is being smashed. It is a state of complete panic everywhere.

Today’s fall was highly unusual because the losses were consistent across the board. Whether dealing with large-cap, mid-cap, or small-cap stocks, average losses ranged between 3% and 4%. Very few stocks managed to escape this downturn, which is a classic sign of capitulation where assets are sold regardless of their individual value. This liquidation was also evident in gold and silver.

All gains made in 2026 have been erased, and gold has broken the previous lows set during the January slam down, effectively breaking the back of the bulls. Silver is now down nearly 50% from its top, while gold has dropped 20% to 25%.

• The Nifty is down 2.6% and is extremely oversold with no signs of life yet.

• Nifty Junior, Mid-caps, and Small-caps all faced steeper declines of 3.8%, while the Bank Nifty fell by 3.7%.

• Gold dropped 5% and silver fell nearly 6%. There is much discussion on various forums regarding whether gold should have held its value as it has during past financial crises or wars. However, the hit taken over the last few days is exceptionally hard, potentially because the gains made in the last three months were wiped out so rapidly.

Other Market Triggers

• The heat map shows that only a few names like Reliance, TCS, and Infosys managed to escape the carnage today.

• Almost everything else was down between 4% and 6%, including major names like HDFC Bank, UltraTech Cement, Sriram Finance, and ITC.

• In the Nifty Next 50, the story was the same, with DLF down 5% and Lodha down 8.5%, indicating a complete liquidation.

• Interestingly, specialty chemicals provided a rare bright spot, with Gujarat Alkali up 14% and NOCIL up 11%.

• This strength might be due to pricing power resulting from supply chain breakdowns in imports.

U.S. Market Updates

• U.S. markets followed suit, dropping between 1% and 2% across major indices. Stocks like Intel Corporation, Oracle, Simon Property, IBM, and Starbucks all moved lower, some of which may be part of the Weekend Investing U.S. Stock portfolio.

• The Nasdaq heat map is also very red, with Tesla, Amazon, Walmart, Nvidia, Avago, Meta, and Palantir all losing ground.

What to watch next ?

• Gold has now returned to its 200-day moving average (DMA) around $4100.

• It is vital to see if it holds this level; if it fails to do so, the outlook becomes quite bleak.

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What To Read This Week ?

The New Normal: Why $100 Oil Isn’t as Scary as You Think

Crude oil is dominating the headlines again, and as usual, the "panic button" has been pressed. With prices climbing from $55 in December 2025 to $108 today (a 95% jump), the narrative is filled with dread. But if we pull back the lens and look at history, we see a very different story.

Is this a crisis, or just a long-overdue adjustment? Let’s dive into the data.

A History of Volatility: The 5 Major Spikes

Before we label the current rally as "unprecedented," we need to look at the five massive surges that shaped the modern world. Crude oil has survived much worse than a 95% increase:

• The Gulf War: Prices skyrocketed 75% in just two months.

• The Asian Crisis Era: A steady but massive climb of 205% over nearly two years.

• The Commodity Super-Cycle (2002–2008): A legendary run where oil surged by 600%.

• The Post-Recession Recovery (2009–2011): A 235% jump in two years as the world restarted.

• The COVID-Ukraine Double Whammy: Perhaps the most dramatic, swinging from $12 to $120—a staggering 935% increase.

The Inflation Reality Check

The "fear" surrounding oil often ignores the basic math of inflation. Twenty-five years ago, oil sat between $40 and $50. Right before the recent geopolitical tensions, it was still hovering around $60–$70.

If every other commodity, service, and currency has felt the impact of 20 years of inflation, why should oil stay frozen in time? A price of $80, $90, or $100 isn't an anomaly; it’s the market accounting for the declining purchasing power of the dollar over two decades.

Adapting to the "New Normal"

History shows that markets are incredibly resilient. While the initial "sticker shock" of triple-digit oil causes a stir, businesses and economies eventually integrate these costs into their pricing models. We are currently in that "adjustment phase." Soon, the world will accept $100 oil not as a hurdle, but as the New Normal.

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