SHOCKING !! Its the longest streak in last 17 years

Market Update - Friday, 17 Apr

The markets are currently in a state of shock and awe as the NASDAQ has experienced a run of 12 straight days of gains. As noted over the last few weeks, markets often perform in ways that nobody expects, and that is exactly what is playing out now in both global and Indian markets. Many investors are currently stuck after losing their positions and are looking to buy back into the market as soon as it dips, but the market is no longer dipping.

At the end of March, it would have been difficult to imagine that April would turn out this way. While the Nifty is not a direct match for the NASDAQ, seeing it move from 22,000 to 24,300 in just 15 days is something few would have bet their money on. What is happening is reasonably good, and while the probability of the markets falling again is very low, it cannot be entirely ruled out.

There are some noticeable gaps, and if brutal news regarding the war starts to emerge, the market could potentially go down. Otherwise, the market appears poised to move higher, as no bad news is currently stopping it.

• This sense of urgency is particularly visible in the Nifty Junior rather than the standard Nifty. The Nifty Junior has seen 11 or 12 sessions of rallying, returning almost to the same level it occupied at the beginning of 2026. It is as if nothing happened during the month of March.

• Nifty Junior rose 1.4%, and mid-caps were up another 1.2%, also fully recovering from the March fall. Small caps are actually trading higher than where they were before the start of the year.

• Investors should link these chart moves with the narrative; waiting for a headline to confirm the war is over before buying is almost always too late. The market provides indications of its intentions much ahead of the popular narrative.

• Small caps rose 1.48% while the Nifty Bank was up 0.85%. The Nifty and Nifty Bank are lagging behind the mid-cap, small-cap, and Nifty Junior spaces, perhaps due to more FII selling in those areas or because mid and small caps have already completed their downward business.

• In the commodities space, gold is absolutely flat at minus 0.06%, with a rate of 15,165, unable to move significantly up or down.

• Crude oil is similarly stuck at 95 to 96 dollars. Major discussions on these topics have reached a standstill, and war news has largely exited major media coverage, which is now focusing on reservations and other domestic issues. The narrative has changed quite a bit.

Other Market Triggers

• Even after the market has been up for ten days, one might expect at least a 1% or 2% correction or some profit-taking, but that is not happening at all.

• The Nifty heatmap was very strong, featuring gains in State Bank of India, Reliance, and Adani Ports. Hindustan unilever rose 4.75%, with Titan, ITC, Shriram Finance, Kotak Bank, Coal India, and JSW Steel all performing well.

• Small losses were noted in HDFC Life, Wipro, Sun Pharma, and Mahindra. The Nifty Next 50 heatmap was also very strong.

• Adani stocks continued their run-up, and consumer non-durables like Godrej, VBL, Britannia, and United Spirits did well.

• Producer manufacturing stocks such as Enrin, CG Power, and Siemens were strong.

• Dmart and Pidilite both jumped 4.5%, while HDFC AMC, IRFC, and many other stocks saw gains. DLF gained 2%, with hardly any losses visible.

• In the mover of the day segment, Angel One rose 10.2% after quarterly profits jumped 84%. The capital markets sector is leading the market significantly.

• Nava Ltd surges on heavy value turnover amid institutional interest, marking a 12% gain. These moves indicate that the market is no longer fearful of going up; instead, people are fearful of buying at these levels.

U.S. Market Updates

• The previous session of the US markets saw another new high, with the NASDAQ hitting 0.49% and the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Russell all up a quarter percent. AMD rose 7.8%, Charter Communications 7%, and Intel 5.4%, while Oricon and FedEx also performed well. Some of these stocks may be part of the weekend investing US stock strategy, though these are not recommendations.

• The NASDAQ 100 heatmap was reasonably green, especially in the semiconductor and chip industry. While ASML, Apple, and Tesla were down, it was overall a very good day for the NASDAQ 100.

What to watch next ?

• If this trend continues for another week or so, major FOMO, or fear of missing out, will likely kick in for the money that has been sitting on the sidelines.

• It is essential to stick with a plan and a strategy rather than trying to outsmart the market, because the market is the smartest of all.

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What To Read This Week ?

The Great Decoupling: Central Banks Are Swapping Dollars for Gold

Today, we are analyzing a fascinating data set presented by Bank of America Global Research regarding foreign holdings of US Treasuries and the shift in global reserves.

The landscape of global finance is shifting beneath our feet, and the latest charts show a dramatic "changing of the guard" between paper assets and hard money.

The Great Reversal: 2015 vs. 2026

A decade ago, the hierarchy of central bank reserves was clear. US Treasuries were the undisputed king, and gold was a secondary insurance policy. However, the data reveals a complete structural reversal over the last ten years:

• In 2015: Gold accounted for only 9% of total reserves, while US Treasuries sat at a dominant 33%.

• In 2026: US Treasury holdings have plummeted to 21%, while gold’s share has surged to 24%.

This isn't just a minor adjustment; it is a fundamental pivot. Even looking back 25 years, gold hovered around 13–15%. We are currently seeing gold reach levels of dominance in central bank vaults that we haven't seen in decades.

The "Silent" Accumulation Strategy

Central banks—the very institutions that create money—are signaling a lack of long-term confidence in the current currency regime. Interestingly, they aren't making loud proclamations about it.

Instead, nations are repatriating their gold (moving it back to their own soil) and steadily increasing their holdings without causing massive market disruptions. They are treating gold as the ultimate "Insurance Policy." If the creators of money feel they need a backup plan, it raises a vital question for individual investors: Is your portfolio sufficiently insured?

Why the Bull Market is Just Getting Started

Despite the price dips we saw in January 2026, the narrative that the "Gold Bull Market" is over is likely incorrect. Here is why the ceiling is much higher:

1. Western Retail Lag: While central banks and Eastern nations are buying, the average retail investor in the Western world has barely entered the market.

2. The Scarcity Phase: We are currently in the "Accumulation Phase." The real price explosion happens during the "Scarcity Phase"—when every Western institution suddenly demands gold at once, and supply cannot keep up.

3. Institutional Shift: We are still waiting for the mass entry of Western pension funds and institutions. When they move, gold will become a scarce commodity.

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