Silver's Long-Term Performance Will Blow You Away

Today was a tough day in the markets with no place to hide. As we had discussed earlier in the week, the additional tariff news has broken the market’s back. Many were hoping for a U-turn from the US President, but that never happened.

Instead, the situation got worse, and the government’s comment that there will be “damage, but not severe damage” spooked investors even more.

• Charts are now showing a head-and-shoulders pattern, which, if it plays out, could drag Nifty closer to 23,000. For now, everyone is watching if the 24,400–24,500 range can provide some support.

• Nifty Jr dropped 1.29%, midcaps 1.21%, and smallcaps 1.1%. Charts show weak distribution patterns, and panic selling could happen if neckline supports break.

• Bank Nifty is leading the fall with its head-and-shoulders pattern already activated, pointing towards 52,000–52,500 levels.

• As always, gold is moving up while markets are falling. Prices touched ₹10,145 per gram as investors rushed to safety.

Other Market Triggers

• The market heatmap was almost all red with big names like HCL Tech, Infosys, TCS, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank leading the losses.

• Even FMCG majors like Hindustan Unilever and ITC fell. In the Nifty Next 50, Indigo crashed over 5% after a large promoter stake sale.

• A few stocks showed relative strength. Ola gained another 8% after a strong run in the past week, moving from ₹40 to ₹55 in just a few sessions. This is notable as it is showing strength in a weak market, which often signals potential setups.

What to watch next ?

• The market is now under heavy pressure and looking for strong support levels. Important zones are close, and we can only hope they hold.

• In the last four to five sessions, the fall has been steep, almost like a waterfall, wiping away the gains made after the GST-related announcements.

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What To Read This Week ?

Silver's Shining Performance: A Look at 25 Years of Returns

This chart, sourced from the ‘In Gold We Trust’, incrementum report, offers a detailed look at the performance of silver over the last 25 years. Let's delve into what the data reveals.

While it faced some challenges, particularly from 2013 to 2015 and a 10% dip in 2021, silver has shown resilience. The last two years, in particular, have been strong with gains of 25% and 30% respectively.

Global Comparison: Silver's Strength Across Currencies

Silver's strong performance isn't limited to the Indian market. It has proven to be a solid asset for global investors as well.

• US Dollar: A 7.8% CAGR in US dollar terms.

• Japanese Yen: A 9.4% CAGR for Japanese investors.

• British Pound: An 8.6% CAGR for British investors.

• Global Average: The average return across different currencies is a healthy 7.9%, highlighting silver's consistent returns worldwide.

The key takeaway is that for long-term investors, silver has been a good-performing hard asset. Despite its volatility and periods of lull, its long-term returns have consistently outpaced inflation and traditional savings accounts.