The Silver Report: A 25-Year Reality Check

Market Update - Wednesday, 17 Dec

The market remained very dull on today, losing some ground as it transitioned into what appears to be an inactive holiday season. While commodities, metals, and the PSU banking space show some activity, the broader market is currently defined by inaction and lethargy.

The Nifty remained flattish, touching a low of 25,770 before closing at 25,818, down 0.16%.

• The Nifty Junior fell by 0.38%, while Mid-caps dropped 0.55%, erasing a significant portion of recent gains.

• Small caps also resumed their downward trajectory, failing to break through existing resistance levels and confirming a short-term bearish trend.

• The Nifty Bank showed more resilience, closing down only 0.18%.

• In the commodities space, gold saw a marginal dip of 0.31% to 13,288. In contrast, silver continues its relentless daily climb.

• Over the last two months, silver has moved from 1,40,000 to 2,02,000 per kilogram, driven by a global surge in demand and a significant shortage in supply.

Other Market Triggers

• The heat map showed significant pressure on private banks, with HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Bank all trading lower.

• However, State Bank of India, Shriram Finance, Coal India, and Hindalco saw some gains.

• IT stocks and Reliance remained flattish, while Bajaj Auto and Adani Ports were among the notable losers.

• In the Nifty Next 50, green was seen primarily in commodities and PSU banks, while most other sectors faced broad distribution and selling pressure.

• A major mover of the day was AkzoNobel, which plunged 13.56% following a 9% stake sale by its promoter. This reflects a growing trend in 2025 where foreign promoters are selling stakes in their Indian subsidiaries, often at a discount, believing them to be overvalued compared to their parent companies.

U.S. Market Update

• In the US, markets were similarly mixed; the NASDAQ rose slightly by 0.2%, but the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 all faced headwinds.

• Tesla hit a new high, and stocks like Comcast, Palantir, and ServiceNow saw gains, though these are observations rather than recommendations.

What to watch next ?

• A major point of interest is the upcoming 9 PM meeting scheduled by Donald Trump on Wednesday night, US time. This event could serve as a significant turning point for several potential outcomes.

• Speculation suggests the discussion could revolve around stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, or perhaps the ongoing situation between the US and Venezuela regarding resource management.

• There is also the possibility of news regarding the replacement of the Fed Chairman or a potential trade deal with India.

• If a trade deal is announced that successfully negotiates tariffs down to 15% or 20%, it would be a highly positive outcome for the Indian markets.

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What To Read This Week ?

The Silver Report: A 25-Year Reality Check

The Long-Term Horizon: Patience is Rewarded

Looking at the data from January 1, 2000, through November 30, 2025, one thing is clear: Silver performs well if your time horizon is measured in decades.

Investors who entered the market in the early 2000s and held through today are seeing healthy, double-digit returns. The metal has proven its ability to preserve and grow wealth—provided you can ignore the noise for 20 years or more.

The "Stagnation Trap" (2006–2014)

The data reveals a sobering middle period. If you purchased Silver between 2006 and 2014, your returns today—over a decade later—might still be stuck in the single digits. Despite the overall rise in Silver prices recently, those who bought during that specific eight-year window haven’t yet reached the "double-digit" success mark. This highlights Silver's tendency to enter prolonged periods of price fatigue.

Recent Momentum: The New Wave

Since 2016, the narrative has shifted. Data shows that for almost any purchase made at the end of the month from 2016 onwards, investors are currently sitting on impressive double-digit returns. This recent "hot streak" makes Silver look like a powerhouse, but history suggests this momentum is often cyclical rather than permanent.

Silver vs. Gold: The "Choppiness" Factor

While Gold is often seen as a steady climber, Silver is notoriously "choppy." To achieve the same returns as Gold, Silver often requires a much longer holding period or much better timing. The price action is more volatile, meaning the "waiting room" for profit can be much more uncomfortable for the average investor.

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