🚀 The "Slow" Path to Your First Million

Market Update - Friday, 16 Jan

It has been a volatile end to the week, shaped by a heavy flow of geopolitical and macroeconomic narratives. The global landscape is changing rapidly, with news that the US is requesting Taiwan to establish semiconductor factories domestically while simultaneously prohibiting certain Nvidia and AMD chips from being exported to China. In response, China has stated it will not allow those chips under any circumstances.

Amidst this global mayhem, the Indian rupee has started to slide again. Despite recent intervention by the RBI, significant changes are occurring while the markets remain somewhat stagnant.

The USD/INR pair is now nearing 91 on a weekly basis, closing at a new all-time high. Historically, at such levels, the probability of the rate climbing higher is very significant, and it would not be surprising to see it move toward 92 or 93 in the coming weeks.

Over the last five days, the market has fluctuated within a narrow 200 to 300-point range. Following an up day on Monday and flattish performance on Tuesday and Wednesday, Friday ended with a minimal change of 0.11% after the Thursday holiday.

• Nifty Junior and the mid-cap space were also flat, moving 0.1% and 0.04% respectively.

• The small-cap space showed weakness, dropping 0.47%, though its short-term outlook has turned positive.

• Bank Nifty remains the standout performer with positive trends across all timeframes.

• In the commodities space, gold rose 0.28% to reach 14246 per gram. While international gold prices dipped slightly in the last 24 hours, the weakening rupee helped bolster local prices.

• Gold remains positive across short, mid, and long-term horizons.

• Silver also showed resilience, staying strong at 82,000 despite attempts to move it lower, closing only 0.75% down.

Other Market Triggers

• The heat map was largely red, with ITC, Maruti, Zomato, Jio, and others dragging the Nifty down, while IT leaders like Infosys, Wipro, and HCL Tech attempted to lead the long side.

• A notable mover of the day was IFCI, which surged 8% due to its significant shareholding in the NSE. This gain is linked to the likelihood of an upcoming No Objection Certificate (NOC) for the NSE IPO.

US Market Updates

• In the US, markets showed strength with gains across the Russell, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P indices.

• Financial heavyweights like Blackrock, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs saw significant gains.

• Within the NASDAQ 100, while the largest companies remained steady, there was major action in mid and small caps; AMD rose 6% and Intel climbed 7.3%, while Adobe suffered a 5.4% drop.

• These stock mentions are for informational purposes and are not recommendations; please refer to the strategy disclaimer for further details.

What to watch next ?

• The recent performance of ITC serves as a significant case study for investors. The stock has fallen for 11 consecutive sessions without a decent pullback, likely due to high open interest in the futures segment.

• Technical analysis suggests a head and shoulders pattern with a target near 300 to 310, levels the stock is now approaching.

• This episode offers several vital lessons: the danger of over-concentration in a single "beloved" stock, the inherent risk of government intervention in specific industries, and the importance of following trends.

• Momentum investing is designed to keep investors out of such danger zones. The downward trend for ITC actually began near 500 rupees, not 400, and momentum-based portfolios had exited the stock long before the current slide.

• While chasing returns is a common goal, the ability to avoid major traps is perhaps the most valuable lesson. We hope these recurring market lessons are finally taken to heart.

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What To Read This Week ?

🚀 The "Slow" Path to Your First Million (And Why Most People Quit Too Soon)

Many investors look at their portfolios after three or four years and feel a sense of defeat. "The needle isn't moving," they say. But what they don't realize is that they are currently in the "Lag Phase" of a mathematical miracle.

As noted by financial educator Brian Feroldi, the power of compounding is heavily back-loaded. We often fail to judge the explosive impact of the later stages because our brains are wired for linear, not exponential, growth.

The Million-Dollar Timeline: A Race Against Time

Let’s look at the journey from $0 to $1,000,000. Assuming a conservative post-tax annual return of 7%, the time it takes to gain each 10% ($100,000) of your goal changes drastically:

The Pareto Principle of Investing

There is a striking "80/20" rule hidden in wealth creation. The data shows that for roughly 57% of your total time spent investing, you only see about 20% of your total net worth growth.

However, because you stayed the course, the remaining 80% of your wealth is generated in the final stretch of the journey. Most people quit during that first 57% of the time because the progress feels invisible. They blame the market, the economy, or their strategy, not realizing they were just inches away from the "upward turn" of the hockey stick.

It’s Math, Not Magic

Whether you are a legendary stock picker like Warren Buffett or Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, or a simple index investor, this Hockey Stick Curve is a mathematical reality.

• Active Investors: May see an 18% return and a steeper curve.

• Passive Investors: May see a 12% return and a steadier curve.

Regardless of the percentage, the "Rapid Kick" always happens in the later years. The biggest advantage you can give yourself is not finding a "unicorn" stock; it is starting early and staying on the path long enough to let the math do the heavy lifting.

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