US Nominal GDP Hits a Post-WWII High

Today’s Market Update

The week has come to an end, and the last two sessions have shown a strong pullback. Before this, the market had gone through nine continuous red candles heading down.

The GDP numbers and the RBI’s statement that credit offtake may finally start to rise gave new hope. Many brokerage houses also upgraded their ratings on banking and consumption stocks, which helped revive interest in these sectors.

• Markets opened weak today but picked up in the last few hours and closed above yesterday’s high, which is a good signal. Nifty closed 0.23% higher.

• Nifty Junior was up 0.39%, Mid Caps gained 0.85%, and Small Caps were up 0.86%.

• Banks also rose 0.44% after a massive move in the previous session. Overall, the week closed well, and there is positive hope for the coming week.

• Gold stayed very strong at 11,688, almost touching a new all-time high, closing with a 0.32% gain for the day.

Other Market Triggers

• Many big names contributed to this rise including private banks like Kotak Bank and Axis Bank.

• Power Grid, Bharat Electronics, L&T, Bharti Airtel, Hindalco, and Tata Steel also saw strong moves, with Tata Steel rising 3.4%.

• Adani Power, Divi’s Lab, Hindustan Zinc, Solar Industries, and some PSU banks also showed mixed performance.

• The mover of the day was V-Mart Retail, which jumped nearly 16% after posting a strong business update for the second quarter.

U.S. Market Update

• In the US markets, the last session was flat. S&P 500 and Dow Jones barely moved, while Nasdaq gained 0.39% and the Russell 2000 small-cap index was up 0.66%.

• Intel continued its sharp rally, moving from 24 to 37 in a short span, supported by US government stake. Advanced Micro Devices jumped 3.49%, while PayPal, Starbucks, and Adobe rose between 2% and 4%.

What to watch next ?

• GST collections showed a rise of 9.1%. Some may say it is not a big number, but given the global challenges and tariff conflicts, this growth is actually encouraging.

• October is expected to be even stronger.

• Metals performed strongly today with copper, aluminum, and zinc doing very well in the commodity space. This makes it look like commodity-led inflation could be a possible outcome of current global policies.

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The Unstoppable Engine: US Nominal GDP Hits a Post-WWII High 🚀

The Shocking Post-Pandemic Surge: 54% Nominal GDP Growth

A recent data point has genuinely surprised observers and market analysts. It reveals that the United States has clocked a staggering 54% nominal GDP growth for the five-year period between 2020 and 2025.

This is not only a significant figure but, remarkably, it stands as the highest five-year nominal GDP growth period since World War II. This powerful surge demonstrates that despite persistent "recessionary calls" and widespread skepticism, the U.S. economy is currently operating with unexpected vigor on a nominal basis.

Putting the Growth in Context: More Than Double the Recovery

To truly grasp the magnitude of this acceleration, it must be compared to previous recovery periods. Consider the five-year span following the 2008 Lehman crisis, from 2009 to 2014. That period, which was considered a strong recovery phase, achieved a total nominal GDP growth of just 23%.

The recent 54% growth is more than double the growth rate witnessed in the 2009–2014 era. This illustration highlights a massive difference in economic momentum, suggesting that the current growth cycle—whether fueled by innovation, inflation, or a combination—is historically potent.

Implications: Refuting the 'Dead Economy' Narrative

The robust nature of this underlying nominal growth offers a compelling explanation for the persistent outperformance of U.S. markets compared to their global peers. It directly challenges the narrative often circulated that the U.S. is a "dead economy" facing stagnation.

The data suggests the opposite: innovation and growth are being driven at an accelerated pace within the U.S. economic framework. This strong nominal foundation provides the necessary buoyancy for asset valuations and corporate earnings, confirming that the U.S. economy’s underlying strength remains surprisingly and historically robust.

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