What Led to Today's Market Fall ?

Market Update - Friday, 13 Feb

Friday the 13th brought a bloodbath to several sections of the market today. IT stocks continue to plummet downward, motivated primarily by overseas action where ADRs listed in those markets are dropping daily. Consequently, local markets are pricing these stocks accordingly. Severe technical patterns are emerging on the IT front that look particularly bad.

Looking at the IT index chart, there has been a drop from 40,000 just last week to 31,000. Zooming into today’s price action, the index did not even attempt to take out the morning high. The weakness is so significant that there is currently no attempt to move upward.

The market is currently navigating a "basket of gaps." One gap was entered today; if overseas markets perform poorly tomorrow, that gap will likely fill. There are other unfilled gaps from previous sessions, and gaps typically fill rapidly during periods of weakness.

• The Nifty lost 1.3%, but this selling wave is hitting all asset classes globally. The NASDAQ, gold, silver, crypto, and metals are all selling off. A critical, often overlooked element is the rising Japanese Yen.

• Elsewhere, Nifty Junior fell 1.5%, while Mid caps and Small caps both dropped 1.6%, signaling a shift in trends.

• Bank Nifty fell 0.9% and remains relatively stable, but overall sentiment has soured.

• Gold and silver are looking for stability amid stagnation, with gold at 15,353 and silver at 246,283. Chinese markets are entering a nine-day holiday season, meaning precious metals action will be driven by the West, which could lead to further downward pressure.

Other Market Triggers

• The heat map showed very little green. Bajaj Finance rose 2.5% as AI productivity becomes a buzzword, and Eicher Motors surprisingly gained 1.5%.

• However, there was nowhere to hide in the Nifty. Hindustan Unilever lost 4.3%, ITC lost 1%, and Hindalco fell 5.7%. Significant FII selling numbers are expected.

• Real estate stocks in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh are losing ground due to fears that an IT slowdown will reduce apartment demand.

• Meanwhile, Muthoot Finance reported spectacular earnings but was smashed down 11.8%, suggesting the good news was already baked into the price.

U.S. Market Updates

• Dramatic falls occurred in the US as well. Cisco dropped 12%, while Emerson Electric, Bank of New York, Citigroup, and Walt Disney all fell over 5.5%.

• The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 each fell 2%, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones down 1.5%.

• Apple lost 5% in a single day, wiping out $200 billion in market cap—a sum larger than the total value of Infosys.

What to watch next ?

• The market has given up all gains from the last seven sessions and a significant portion of the gains from the US deal.

• This is concerning, with the bottom sitting at 24,600. If that breaks, significant trouble could follow.

Read Full Article

Important Announcement

We are now live on our official WhatsApp Channel. We share all our strategy updates, rebalances, and important announcements here. Please watch this video to know more & join in at the earliest possible.

Join Now

Top Trending Strategies

What To Read This Week ?

The 2026 Market Outlook: Noise vs. Signal

The Big Three: Valuations, Leadership, and Capital

The survey highlights a few major pressure points that could define the next twelve months:

• The AI Bubble (57%): More than half of respondents believe tech valuations have reached a boiling point. The "AI Revolution" is now being viewed through a lens of skepticism—is it a structural shift or just a massive valuation bubble waiting to pop?

• The "Wash" Effect (27%): With a new Fed Chairman, Wash, set to take the helm in May, over a quarter of investors are bracing for policy turmoil. The transition period is already sparking market jitters.

• The Credit Crunch (22%): A significant portion of the market is eyeing a crisis in private capital, coupled with rising bond yields in both the US and Japan.

The Danger of Living in the Narrative

It’s easy to get trapped in these stories. Many investors tell themselves, "If the Fed Chair says X, I will sell Y." However, narratives are notoriously difficult to time. By the time a qualitative factor (like a policy shift) becomes "official" news, the market has often already moved.

Fixating on these points can lead to analysis paralysis or, worse, emotional trading based on headlines rather than hard data.

Price is the Ultimate Truth

While it is important to study the macro environment, remember that Price is Supreme. The movement of the stock price acts as a leading indicator. It often bakes in all the risks mentioned above long before they hit the front page. Instead of guessing how a new Fed Chair will affect your portfolio, watch the charts. The price action will tell you whether to:

1. Hold through the volatility.

2. Add to your winners.

3. Exit before the narrative turns into a full-blown crash.

Read Full Article

Meme Of The Day