Why Markets stalled despite the HYPE?

Markets Overview

The week began with optimism, but it turned out to be a reality check for the markets. Heading into the post-Diwali session, traders were almost certain that an Indo–US trade deal was on the verge of being signed. The sentiment led to a gap-up opening on Thursday, signaling strong belief that the tariff standoff was nearing an end. However, the optimism was short-lived.

The rally quickly collapsed after Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal’s remarks from Berlin, where he emphasized that India would not be “arm-twisted” and that negotiations were still ongoing. The assertive tone from the Indian side suggested that any agreement is still some distance away. What markets had celebrated as “imminent” now looks more like a rumor-fueled rally that got ahead of reality. The good news, however, is that despite the sudden correction, the index has not lost ground materially. Prices are roughly back where they were before the Diwali break — nothing gained, but nothing lost either. The structure remains intact.

On the technical front, Nifty ended the week up 0.33%, a modest gain during a short trading week with relatively low volumes. The weekly chart continues to look constructive, with the breakout from the previous week still very much in play. The trend remains upward as long as Nifty holds above the 25,500 mark, which sits roughly 300 points below current levels. This is a healthy consolidation rather than a reversal. Once fresh progress emerges on the trade talks front, a move toward new all-time highs looks likely. The setup remains robust — momentum has slowed, but the overall technical tone continues to favor the bulls.

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The markets were quite dull today. The earlier optimism around the US–India treaty has faded again after Piyush Goyal mentioned that things will move step by step and take time. The rest of Asia also looked weak and quiet. It felt like investors simply didn’t have the energy to push any segment higher today.

Rebalance Update for the week