You Are In The Golden Age of Investment

Today’s Market Update

The week ended with the market showing hope for a possible Fed rate cut next week, and there was a fair amount of optimism in the air.

One of the big news items was the ₹18,000 crore buyback program announced by Infosys. Buybacks are often used by companies to lift sentiment when there are not many other growth options visible. It is essentially the company saying that instead of finding new ways to use the cash, it is returning the money to shareholders.

Another big development was the IPO of Urban Company, which got subscribed nearly 100 times. Many fundamental analysts have already called the IPO super expensive. Reports suggest there may be 30 to 50 percent listing gains, which has led to a kind of mania in the market. But investors have been advised to stay cautious and enter only with a clear plan in mind.

• Nifty rose by 0.43% and broke above a key trend line, suggesting it could move toward previous highs.

• Nifty Junior was up 0.32%, midcaps gained 0.28%, and small caps also edged 0.32% higher.

• Bank Nifty was up 0.26%.

• Gold continued its strong rise, touching nearly ₹11,000 per gram, up from ₹9,800 just three weeks back. With market premiums of about ₹3,000–₹3,500 per 10 grams, the actual cost of buying gold is even higher.

Other Market Triggers

• Among the major gainers were Bharat Electronics in the defense space, L&T Infra, Hindalco, Eicher, Maruti, Tata Motors, Reliance, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, and Shriram Finance.

• On the losing side, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti, Wipro, and Bajaj Auto gave up some ground.

• Hindustan Copper was a standout mover, jumping over 12% after announcing a ₹2,000 crore capex plan spread over five to six years.

What to watch next ?

• Overall, the market sentiment appeared to be shifting back toward normal business activity, with indices climbing gradually.

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What To Read This Week ?

The Golden Age of Investment

The Historical Bull Runs of Gold

The chart from Ritesh Jain provides a fascinating look at gold's performance over the last 25 and 250 years.

It highlights two significant bull runs that provide a potential roadmap for the current market.

• 1st Bull Run (1976 - 1981): During this period, gold prices soared from a base of approximately $100 to about $800, representing a massive 8x increase.

• 2nd Bull Run (2001 - 2011): The next major bull run saw gold rise from a base of around $250 to about $2,000, again showing an approximate 8x growth.

This historical data suggests a pattern of significant, long-term upward movements in the price of gold.

Current Projections: The 3rd Bull Run

Based on this historical precedence, a third bull run for gold appears to be underway, starting around 2016 from a base of approximately $1,050. If this run were to mirror the previous two and achieve a similar 8x growth, the price of gold could potentially reach $8,000 to $9,000.

Implications for Indian Investors

For Indian investors, the potential for a significant increase in gold prices is even more pronounced. Assuming the Indian Rupee remains stable or even appreciates slightly against the US Dollar, a gold price of $8,000 to $9,000 would translate to an astonishing ₹250,000 to ₹300,000 per gram. This projection stems from the historical correlation and the potential for a repeat performance of the 8x growth seen in the past.

Key Takeaways:

• Pattern Recognition: Historical gold data shows a repeatable pattern of 8x growth during major bull runs.

• Current Projections: If this pattern holds, the current bull run could see gold prices climb to $8,000-$9,000.

• Rupee Impact: This could translate into a price of ₹250,000-₹300,000 per gram for Indian investors, highlighting the significant potential for returns.

• Caveat: As with any investment, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This analysis is a probabilistic outlook based on historical trends, and market conditions can change.

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